Euro 2024 Betting Study (Part 1: The Group Stage)

Here at Betlookr, we seek to better understand all sporting leagues – including high profile competitions which we don’t specifically provide tips for. The Euro 2024 Football Championship, currently taking place in Germany, is a good example of this.

We want to understand the betting basics of Euro 2024. The main aim of this study is to discover which ultra-simple betting strategy would be most profitable. And we are truly talking about 3 ultra-simple approaches to betting on the Euros. 

The Strategies

1. Back the favourite

If you had bet on every favourite to win every game, would you be in profit? 

2. Back the underdog

What about backing the underdog in each match? 

3. Back the draw

And what about favouring the draw? 

Of course, there is the distinct possibility that none of these simple strategies will turn out to be profitable, and that the bookmaker comes out ahead against everyone.

Before we dive into the performance of each strategy, let;s set some rules.

The rules of this Euro 2024 betting study

We will use Bet365 for the odds. We chose this bookmaker as most people in most countries can open an account there, and they use a pretty standard margin of around 5% for Euros games.

We will measure the 1×2 odds on the morning of each game.

We will bet 10 euros per game, and allocate 360 euros as a starting balance for each strategy. This will allow us (in the absolute worst case scenario) to fully fund each strategy, since there are 36 matches in the group stages.

Let’s look at the performance of each of the 3 strategies (here’s the spreadsheet if you prefer that format): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rxGBHYNPfUWHiD6idqOqNA5O89gMLs4_tD9J3F9d45U/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Performance of each Euro 2024 Betting Strategy

Back all the favourites

Definition of a favourite: the team with the lowest odds of winning, according to Bet365 on the morning of the game.

Key Betting Stats for this strategy

Number of games: 36

Number of games which ended with favourite winning: 17

Accuracy rate: 47.22%

Starting Balance: 360 Euros

Bet size: 10 Euros per game

Profit: 100 Euros

Max drawdown: 90 Euros

ROI: 24.4661%

The ‘back the favourite’ strategy started extremely well, with 9 out of 12 games in Matchday 1 finishing with the favourite beating the underdog. Highlights included Germany trouncing Scotland 5-1 in the opening game and Spain’s 3-0 victory over Croatia. After that, it went downhill fast. In matchday 2, the accuracy rate dropped to a mediocre 50%. On matchday 3, this collapsed to just 16.6%, as teams who had already qualified decided to put their feet up, with Germany’s draw against Switzerland and Portugal’s shock 2–0 loss to unfancied Georgia being notable examples. Combined with the lower odds inherent in ‘back the favourite’ strategies, this trend of favourites often being unmotivated means this strategy returned just 24% after the group stage. With the knockout stage upon us, and the inevitable use of extra time and penalty shoot outs, it’s unlikely to improve in the rest of the tournament. It will be interesting to see if it remains profitable between now and the final.

Back every game as a draw

Key Betting Stats for this strategy

Number of games: 36

Number of games which ended as a draw: 14

Accuracy rate: 38.89%

Starting Balance: 360 Euros

Bet size: 10 Euros per game

Profit: 304.30 Euros

Max drawdown: 65 Euros

ROI: 84.528 %

The ‘back the draw’ strategy started off slow, with just 1 out of 12 games on Matchday 1 finishing level (the Slovenia vs Denmark game). From Matchday 2, this strategy really started to come into its own, with 50% of games ending as draws. Highlights included Croatia’s 2-2 draw with Albania and the Netherlands tying in their big game with France. While this 50% accuracy rate in Matchday 2 was the same as the ‘back the favourites’ strategy, the vastly superior odds associated with backing the draw meant a positive ROI, This trend continued into Matchday 3, where a massive 7 out of 12 games finished level, as big teams stopped trying quite so hard to win. A total ROI of 84% meant a profit of 300 Euros. Not bad for 2 week’s work, and we expect this ‘back the draws’ strategy to continue to drive profits throughout the knock-out stage.

Back every underdog

Definition of an underdog: the team with the highest odds of winning, according to Bet365 on the morning of the game.

Key Betting Stats for this strategy

Number of games: 36

Number of games which ended as a underdog win: 5

Accuracy rate: 13.89%

Starting Balance: 360 Euros

Bet size: 10 Euros per game

Profit: -51.70 Euros

Max drawdown: 180 Euros

ROI: -15%

While the ‘back the draws’ strategy was massively profitable in the group stage, the same cannot be said about betting on the underdog. The underdog won on just 5 occasions out of 36 games, and, despite the higher odds, this wasn’t enough for this strategy to be profitable. Typical underdog odds were around the 3.5 mark, with only Georgia’s shock win over Portugal (with odds of 8.5) really something to get excited about. While this may improve in the knockout stages, the tighter games we tend to get as we progress deeper into the competition make it rather unlikely.

Conclusions about this Euro 2024 Betting Study and Look to the Knockout Stages

The most successful blind betting strategy during the Euro 2024 group stage turned out to be backing the draw, and bettors who chose this approach would have almost doubled their money in under 2 weeks. This is an incredible return, considering just how little work and brain power required. This year’s tournament is now half way through, but there is still plenty of scope for the ‘bet on the draw’ strategy to produce profits in the knockout stage, since the games will tend to be closer, and teams will have the possibility to use extra time and penalties (which mean draws after 90 minutes) to advance.

And the lessons of this study can be used in your betting strategy for the 2026 World Cup in North America. It may have a lower hit rate than other strategies, but backing the draw is definitely a basic strategy to be considered when approaching international tournaments.  

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