Flat betting on Premier League draws (Aug – Dec 2024)
January 2, 2025
Flat betting is a fascinating approach to sports wagering. This method involves betting on every game in a competition the same way. That could be betting that every game ends with over 2.5 goals, that every game ends with a home win, or in the case of this article, that every Premier League match ends as a draw. Below we will study all 160 EPL games that took place between August 16 and Dec 16 2024 and, using the actual odds, work out if we would have made a profit betting that these games ended as draws. Let’s dive in.
Is flat betting on draws in the Premier League profitable?
Yes, in the 160 games in this study, betting on draws made a tidy profit of 193.20 units. That is based on betting 10 units per game, and it produced a strike rate of 27.04%. Those 10 units per game meant betting 1600 units in total, producing an RoI of 12.08% over the 4 months of the study. The annualized Roi is 57.19%. While that doesn’t come close to Bitcoin’s rise in 2024, a 57.19% return on investment would have been a much better play than any global stock market this year.
There is one important caveat here. This is based on the best odds available. If you had taken the average odds available, you would end up with a return of 109 units (6.81% RoI), so still profitable, but half as much. Once again, this shows the importance of capturing better odds in sports betting. You can find the best odds available for each bet in our predictions tool.
Which EPL clubs produced most profit by betting on draws?
As you might expect, not all clubs have produced the same level of profits in the draws market so far this season. Below is a table of all 20 Premier League clubs ranked by profitability of betting on games involving these teams between August and December 2024.
| Club | No. of draws | Strike Rate (%) | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 5 | 31,25 | 170.5 |
| Brighton | 6 | 37.5 | 130.4 |
| Arsenal | 6 | 37.5 | 119 |
| Crystal Palace | 7 | 43.75 | 117.2 |
| Fulham | 6 | 37.5 | 99.1 |
| Everton | 6 | 40 | 98.1 |
| Ipswich | 6 | 40 | 77.9 |
| Leicester | 5 | 31.25 | 42.9 |
| Newcastle | 5 | 31.25 | 34 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 25 | 4.7 |
| Aston villa | 4 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Nottingham Forest | 4 | 25 | 0.1 |
| Man Utd | 4 | 25 | -2.8 |
| West Ham | 4 | 25 | -9.1 |
| Bournemouth | 4 | 25 | -9.2 |
| Liverpool | 3 | 20 | -11 |
| Man City | 3 | 18.76 | -18 |
| Wolves | 3 | 18.75 | -43.8 |
| Spurs | 2 | 12.5 | -71.9 |
| Brentford | 2 | 12.5 | -87.5 |
Which EPL clubs produced most profit by betting on draws?
Bottom-placed Southampton lead the profitability table when it comes to draws. this was the first season back in the Premier League for the South Coast club, and it’s interesting that all 3 newly-promoted clubs (Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich) all appeared in the top half of this profitability table. Just focusing on these 3 teams would have been hugely profitable, and you would have had advanced knowledge of who these 3 teams would be before the start of the season. Could that be a betting strategy to implement next season? Perhaps. It’s definitely something I will experiment with from Matchday 1 on the 3 promoted clubs next season.
Are there any other leagues which show profitability betting on draws?
Yes, in the first half of the 2024-25 season, several leagues showed profitability, just from betting on all games ending as draws. The EFL Championship, Danish Superliga, and Germany’s 2nd Bundesliga were particularly profitable. Below is a table of the top 10 for betting on draws, ranked by profitability.
| League | Strike Rate | ROI (10 units per game) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England Championship | |||||||||
| Denmark Superliga | |||||||||
| Romania Superliga | |||||||||
| Germany 2. Bundesliga | |||||||||
| Italy Serie B | |||||||||
| Belgium Pro League | |||||||||
| England Premier League | |||||||||
| Italy Serie A | |||||||||
| Colombia Primera | |||||||||
| Liga MX | |||||||||
Conclusion
Betting on draws can be a profitable and reliable approach to betting on soccer., assuming that you choose the correct league(s). The Premier League is a great example, and there are even better candidates for this kind of flat betting. As we move into 2025, Betlookr subscribers will receive regular insights like this to enhance their betting profitability.
