Flat betting on the goals over markets
February 13, 2025
Welcome to the next installment of our flat betting strategy series, where we explore the approach of betting the same amount on every game in a league for and analyzing if it makes a profit.
Today it’s the turn of the goals over markets. From Over 0.5 markets to Over 4.5 markets, we look at which leagues are best to deploy each strategy and which are best avoided, with some commentary from myself, a semi-pro sports bettor
For the purposes of this study, we will look at all 50+ leagues in the Betlookr database, from August 2024 to January 2025.
Let’s dive right in.
Over 0.5
This market is essentially a bet on any game that does not end in a 0-0 draw. Are there any leagues where this is profitable? Surely the odds must be too low? Actually, our analysis of Betlookr data shows that there 9 leagues that turn a net profit. However, this only applies when using the absolute best odds at any time, and, frankly, there looks better and more reliable ways to be profitable than this market. The strike rate of >95%is incredible, of course, but hopefully Betlookr subscribers know by now not to rely on that statistic too much. Here’s the table of leagues which made a profit, using the best odds. Anything not on here made a loss.
| League | Strike Rate | Profit (average odds) | Profit (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Serie A | 93.16% | -22.90 | 80.10 |
| Spain LaLiga | 93.48% | 7.60 | 45.10 |
| Brazil Serie B | 90.24% | -67.00 | 37.90 |
| Saudi Pro League | 97.01% | -0.40 | 30.90 |
| Netherlands Eredivisie | 96.39% | -12.80 | 24,70 |
| France Ligue 1 | 95.24% | -18.20 | 19.30 |
| Colombia Primera A | 90.19% | -37.20 | 16.50 |
| Mexico Liga MX | 96.23% | -0.80 | 11.90 |
| Denmark Superliga | 96.08% | -13.80 | 7.40 |
Over 1.5
This market is a little better than the 0.5. Strike rates in the 70-80% range, depending on the league, are common, and there are some profitable leagues to focus on. You don’t even need to get best available odds to turn a profit here, which I personally always find reassuring in a betting strategy. The table below shows the 5 profitable leagues using best odds. Three of them produce more than 100 units of profit, which is my benchmark to become interested. However, 3 leagues out of 50 wouldn’t leave enough meat on the bone for me, as there is still too much risk for what are actually quite meagre rewards, but it might be OK for some of you.
| League | Strike Rate | Profit (average odds) | Profit (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France Ligue 1 | 84.13% | 98.20 | 157.50 |
| Brazil Serie A | 72.89% | 22.90 | 152.30 |
| Italy Serie A | 90.24% | 44.80 | 119.00 |
| England Premier League | 97.01% | -5.50 | 53.90 |
| Denmark Superliga | 96.39% | 10.60 | 39.20 |
Over 2.5
This is the classic overs market that every bookmaker tends to offer. There are 5 leagues in our database which offer over 100 units of profit, with the best offering over 300 units potential profit (best odds). The table below shows a full list of the leagues that offer more than 100 units of profit. In my opinion, this is the second best market to exploit for the over goals strategy right now. It has a great balance between strike rate and profits.
| League | Strike Rate | Profit (average odds) | Profit (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Serie A | 47.37% | 138.30 | 349.30 |
| Spain LaLiga 2 | 47.37% | 152.40 | 325.20 |
| Italy Serie A | 52.52% | 63.70 | 165.10 |
| Indian Super League | 60.08% | -49.30 | 109.90 |
| Germany 2. Bundesliga | 62.96% | 20.70 | 102.70 |
Over 3.5
This market is a bit more daring than the over 2.5, and the strike rate of around 35% requires a little more intestinal fortitude too. Still, there are 10 leagues which showed a profit, with 6 of them offering more than 100 units of profit (seen in the table below). The winning league for this one so far this year has been Spain’s Segunda Division, which produced a very impressive 700 units of profit.
| League | Strike Rate | Profit (average odds) | Profit (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain LaLiga 2 | 28.07% | 393.60 | 718.60 |
| Germany 2. Bundesliga | 42.86% | 75.00 | 196.00 |
| Turkey Superlig | 35.44% | 34.00 | 182.40 |
| Germany Bundesliga | 43.39% | 43.40 | 146.30 |
| Denmark Superliga | 41.18% | 69.20 | 144.30 |
Over 4.5
If you have an extreme risk appetite, the Over 4.5 market is a good method of choice to bet on goals. The strike rates of around 20% will put off most bettors, but just look at the profits for the top leagues in the list of top-performing leagues below. The Turkish Superlig is the top performer here, producing a mammoth 700 units of profit. The arms race between Galatasaray and Fenerbahce, buying up forward talent from across Europe certainly paid dividends in Turkey. So this market is definitely promising. But in all honesty, it’s too inconsistent for me to put serious money on this market. I know for a fact that I couldn’t cope with massive drawdowns that come with 20% strike rates, and will always be worrying about when the bookies shorten the odds and remove much of the profitability. Is it for you? That all depends on your risk appetite. Perhaps start off with 1 unit bets on a small account and see how much you enjoy/hate it.
| League | Strike Rate | Profit (average odds) | Profit (best odds) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey Superlig | 21.36% | 356.50 | 707.50 |
| Italy Serie A | 15.13% | -89.00 | 328.10 |
| Netherlands Eredivisie | 21.65% | -6.00 | 266.00 |
| Romania Superliga | 11.54% | -245.40 | 195.00 |
| Mexico LigaMX | 18.87% | 80.80 | 163.60 |
Some observations about betting on over goals markets
Don’t confuse a high winning percentage of bets with profitability. The most profitable markets and leagues are those with a relatively low strike rate, as it all depends on the odds available. Of course, it also depends on how brave you are.
As with most betting markets, the over goals markets can be profitable, as long as you stay informed about which leagues are worth exploiting (and where else can you do that outside of Betlookr)?
Once again, we see just how critical it is to make sure you are getting good value odds. You don’t need to open accounts with a dozen different bookies on the off chance that one of them will one day offer the absolute best odds, but there’s no need to leave profit on the table by sticking with a brand which consistently offers bad odds.
As with every area of sports betting, the over goals markets are dynamic, because bookmakers adjust odds based on recent historical performance. A league that is great for overs in the first half of a season will naturally decay in the second half of the season, as bookies tighten up the odds. It’s an inevitable feature of sports betting, and it will be interesting to revisit the over 4.5 market at the end of the season to see how Turkey pans out. What is profitable now might not be profitable tomorrow. That’s why it’s important to stay informed about what is working right now. And one of the best places to do that is right here on the Betlookr blog.
What about goals unders markets?
Over markets are popular because most sports bettors are fans, and fans like to dream about exciting football games. But professional sports bettors know that often times, betting on boredom ( 0-0 draws for example) can pay off in the long run. In the next installment, we will explore whether this holds true for goals under markets. If you are serious about making money, you won’t want to miss that!
