How betting on draws won big on Euro 2024

Here at Betlookr, we seek to better understand all sporting leagues – including high profile competitions which we don’t specifically provide tips for. The Euro 2024 Football Championship, which recently took place in Germany, is a good example of this.

We wanted to understand the basic fundamentals of betting Euro 2024. The main aim of this study is to discover which of three ultra-simple betting strategies would be most profitable. Let’s look at the 3 strategies below, which can be utilized by any bettor, whatever their skill level or bankroll

The Strategies

Strategy 1: Back the favourite: If you had just bet on every favourite to win every game in Euro 2024, would you be in profit? 

Strategy 2: Back the underdog: What about backing the underdog in each match? The odds are by definition higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the strategy is profitable overall.

Strategy 3: Back the draw: And what about favouring the draw? Betting that every game ends in a draw is a ballsy move, but it might just work, since most games are between evenly matched, top-level teams, and draws tend to be assigned the highest odds.

Will any of these strategies turn a profit? Of course, there is the distinct possibility that none of these simple strategies will turn out to be profitable, and that the bookmakers come out ahead against all these strategies. If the bookies manage to price the odds correctly, this is actually what should happen.

Before we dive into the performance of each strategy, let’s look at establishing some ground rules.

The rules of this Euro 2024 betting study

• We used Bet365 for the odds. We chose this bookmaker as most people in most countries can open an account there, and they use a pretty standard margin of around 5% for Euro 2024 games. There are better value bookies, and there are a lot worse, but 5% at Bet365 is a great average.
• To remove any informational biases, we will measure the 1X2 odds on the morning of each game. Between 9am and 12pm UK time.
• We will bet 10 euros per game, and allocate 360 euros as a starting balance for each strategy. This will allow us (in the absolute worst case scenario) to fully fund each strategy, since there are 36 matches in the group stages.

Performance of all strategies

Let’s look at the performance of each of the 3 strategies. 51 games played and a starting balance of 360 units for each strategy.

Strategy	Games Correct	Accuracy	End Balance	Profit (ROI)	Max Drawdown
Back the Favourite	25		606.6	(68,5%)	w
Back the Underdog	7
Back the Draw	19

Here’s a spreadsheet detailing each game, including the odds and the returns for following each strategy: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rxGBHYNPfUWHiD6idqOqNA5O89gMLs4_tD9J3F9d45U/edit?gid=0#gid=0

And here’s a graphic showing how the equity of each strategy, from Match Day 1 to the Final:

Let’s now discuss the stats for each strategy.

The ‘back the favourite’ strategy started extremely well, with 9 out of 12 games in Matchday 1 finishing with the favourite beating the underdog. Highlights included Germany trouncing Scotland 5-1 in the opening game and Spain’s 3-0 victory over Croatia. After that, it went downhill fast. In matchday 2, the accuracy rate dropped to a mediocre 50%. On matchday 3, this collapsed to just 16.6%, as teams who had already qualified decided to put their feet up, with Germany’s draw against Switzerland and Portugal’s shock 2–0 loss to unfancied Georgia being notable examples. Combined with the lower odds inherent in ‘back the favourite’ strategies, this trend of favourites often being unmotivated means this strategy returned just 24% after the group stage. With the knockout stage upon us, and the inevitable use of extra time and penalty shoot outs, it’s unlikely to improve in the rest of the tournament. It will be interesting to see if it remains profitable between now and the final.

The ‘back the draw’ strategy started off slow, with just 1 out of 12 games on Matchday 1 finishing level (the Slovenia vs Denmark game). From Matchday 2, this strategy really started to come into its own, with 50% of games ending as draws. Highlights included Croatia’s 2-2 draw with Albania and the Netherlands tying in their big game with France. While this 50% accuracy rate in Matchday 2 was the same as the ‘back the favourites’ strategy, the vastly superior odds associated with backing the draw meant a positive ROI, This trend continued into Matchday 3, where a massive 7 out of 12 games finished level, as big teams stopped trying quite so hard to win. A total ROI of 84% meant a profit of 300 Euros. Not bad for 2 week’s work, and we expect this ‘back the draws’ strategy to continue to drive profits throughout the knock-out stage.

While the ‘back the draws’ strategy was massively profitable in the group stage, the same cannot be said about betting on the underdog. The underdog won on just 5 occasions out of 36 games, and, despite the higher odds, this wasn’t enough for this strategy to be profitable. Typical underdog odds were around the 3.5 mark, with only Georgia’s shock win over Portugal (with odds of 8.5) really something to get excited about. While this may improve in the knockout stages, the tighter games we tend to get as we progress deeper into the competition make it rather unlikely.

Conclusions after group stage and look ahead to the Knockout stages

The most successful blind betting strategy during the Euro 2024 group stage turned out to be backing the draw, and bettors who chose this approach would have almost doubled their money in under 2 weeks. This is an incredible return, considering just how little work and brain power required. This year’s tournament is now half way through, but there is still plenty of scope for the ‘bet on the draw’ strategy to produce profits in the knockout stage, since the games will tend to be closer, and teams will have the possibility to use extra time and penalties (which mean draws after 90 minutes) to advance.

And the lessons of this study can be used in your betting strategy for the 2026 World Cup in North America. It may have a lower hit rate than other strategies, but backing the draw is definitely a basic strategy to be considered when approaching international tournaments.  

The first part focused on the group stages and this second part will extend the same study to the knockout stages. 

Remember, the study examines what would happen if you had bet on all matches using one of 3 very basic strategies, namely betting on favourites, betting on the underdog, and betting on draws.

For the draws, we will only bet on the scoreline after 90 minutes, ignoring extra time and penalties.

As in part 1, we will use Bet365’s odds from the morning of each game. Bet365 was chosen because of their worldwide availability and good – but not great – margins on the euros (around 5%). Bet365 is the most representative bookie we could find.

QUICK RECAP OF PART 1

At the end of part 1, the backing the favourites and back the draws strategies were both returning a tidy profit, with the draws strategy showing particular promise. The back the underdog strategy was lagging behind, with a loss on our account balance. We anticipated that the draws strategy would continue to prosper during the knockout stages while the favourites and underdog strategies would be squeezed as teams played out for extra time and penalties.

So how did the 3 strategies do during the 15 knockout games?

The Euro 2024 knockout stages accuracy rates (draws, favourites, underdogs)

During the round of 16, the 8 matches produced x wins for the favourites , y draws and just z underdog victories. 

The quarter-finals were particularly good for draws, with 3 out of 4 ending as a tie after 90 minutes. 

The semi-finals and final were less profitable for our draws strategy, all ending with wins for the favourites, as Spain beat England in the final in Berlin.

Backing the underdog was another loser in the knockout stages with just x out of y finishing with a shock win (Turkey’s undeserved victory against Austria).

So the favourites again won the accuracy rate game, but what about the all-important ROI?

The ROI of each strategy (Euro 2024 knockout stages)

We reused what we had left from the 360 Euro starting balance, betting 10 euros per match on each strategy.

The ROI on the draws strategy was a very impressive x%, as we finished with a balance of x euros.

Backing the favourites was also profitable, albeit not as much as the draws. A X% gain wasn’t too shabby.

Backing the underdog was unprofitable as there were simply not enough shocks. That ended with a x% loss.

What about the overall tournament? What happens when the group and knockout stages are bundled together?

The draws strategy is again the winner with a X% ROI from 51 games, with a y% Accuracy rate.

Favourites was less profitable but still saw some gains with an x% ROI.

As you would expect, backing the underdog in every game was a clear loser with a X% loss overall.

My take on why each strategy performed the way it did

Optimising the strategy in time for the World Cup 2026

World Cups tend not to experience as many draws as European football championships. For example, the last edition in Qatar (2022) saw 13 out of 64 games (13%) end as a draw after 90 minutes. For this reason, we wouldn’t recommend going all in on the draws strategy in 2026. Perhaps a better strategy would be to split your money between backing the draw and backing the favourites. Finally, what hat about backing the underdog? The nature of senior tournament football, where teams tend to focus and take things as seriously as they can, mean differences in quality are exposed more readily. Our advice would be to always ignore the underdog. The only possible exception might be in matchday 3 of the group stage where some teams are sure to qualify and take their foot off the pedal.

Hang on, what about ARG v SAUDI in 2022?

Its time to address Saudi beating Argentina in match day 1 in Qatar. This was the biggest underdog victory in recent tournament history. And yet, from a statistical point of view, this result was just an anomaly which can be ignored. That viewpoint was proven true in terms of the subsequent results for both teams, as well as the key data points in the game itself. Argentina went on to win the tournament, while Saudi failed to qualify for the Round of 16. And the stats from the game are striking – ARG dominated possession by 70% to 30%, with 6 shots to 2, and 10 corner kicks to 1. Argentina should have won that game and if it was replayed on an infinite number of occasions, Messi’s men would have won 80-90% of the time. While this game was played before Betlookr could capture odds data, it seems unlikely that the match could help justify a profitable overall strategy of backing underdogs in Qatar.

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