Introduction to Value Betting
January 29, 2025
Value betting is one of the most effective approaches to sports betting. In a landscape where bookmakers price markers efficiently, value bets are one of the few ways to gain an edge and produce a long term profit. But what is value betting exactly, and how can you take advantage of Betlookr’s probability model to beat the market? In this article we will explore some critical aspects that you must keep in mind to gain a consistent edge, as well as a sneak peak on new up and coming functionality in the Betlookr platform which will take much of the guesswork away from finding value bets.
What is an example of a value bet?
A value bet occurs when bookmakers misprice the true probability of an event happening, specifically by quoting lower or higher odds. This could be Barcelona being priced at 2.20 to win at home against Real Madrid when they historically only win 50% of the time (and the true odds should therefore be 2.00). By betting on Barcelona at these inflated odds over the medium to long term you will come out ahead, hence this is a value bet.
Value bets aren’t sure fire winners
It’s important to recognise that value bets won’t always win. These are long term plays which make money if they are played repeatedly and consistently. In a sense, bettors who seek value bets are playing the role of the bookie. Bookies don’t win all te time, but by targetting incorrect odds (like in the Barcelona example above) they comes out ahead in the long term.
Bookies leave most of the implied value on the underdog side
Another important factor to keep in mind in value betting is that the market tends to underprice the odds of the favourite winning. This is due to the majority of betting money naturally gravitating to the favourite. Everyone wants to back dominant clubs like Man City and Liverpool and this market demand drives down the odds, leaving little value on the favourite side. Conversely, underdogs and draws tend to be overpriced, revealing value for the bettor who goes against the tide.
Betting on value tends to increase the size of wins, but at the expense of strike rate
As most of the value in value betting comes from betting on underdogs, and underdogs don’t win most of the time, then the natural equity curve of a successful value bettor exhibits lots of small losses, before seeing big wins that produce an overall profit. A smaller strike rate can be hard to stomach for most bettors, who want to chase the constant dopamine rush of lots of small wins (and then hand it all back in the shape of a shock loss for the favourite). Can you cope with the mental and emotional challenges of long streaks of small losses? Most can not. But this is the life of a value bettor. The rewards are definitely worth it, but value betting needs brass balls to pull it off.
Value tends to decay over time
When you start value betting, you will notice that you aren’t the only one out there playing the value game. When bookies release their odds (typically on a Monday) they will leave a lot of value out there, in the expectation that the market will correct prices over time. Early in the week is the best time to hunt for value, and sharp bettors look to lock in these prices, hammering the odds down over the course of the week. A value bet which exists on a Monday is unlikely to exist on the Friday, as value decays over time, If you choose to play the value game, then you need to act fast while there is still value to be had.
What type of betting environment is ideal for value betting?
The majority of betting money is placed on favourites, and the heavier the favourite, the shorter the odds, and the less likely you will find value on these favourites. That said, some betting environments don’t lend themselves to value betting. In sports and leagues which are dominated by favourites, then value betting doesn’t make sense to pursue, as the bookies have to pay out whenever the favourite wins, no matter how short the odds and how little value there is. Rugby is a sport with very few surprises, so isn’t a happy hunting ground for value bettors. You will have to wait a long time before enough underdogs win and produce a profit for you. Similarly in football a couple of seasons ago, when big teams like Man City were sweeping all before them, value bettors had to run for the hills. What about now? Well the recent expansion in European competitions means big squads are being stretched thinly, leading to more surprises across European leagues. This is the ideal time for value bettors to take advantage of these surprises and start betting against favourites, where the best value is to be had.
The future of value betting with Betlookr
Here at Betlookr, we want our customers to have easy access to value betting, so they can boost their profitability as bettors. Scheduled for early 2025, we will clearly mark bets as offering value from as early on in the week as possible. As value bets naturally decay over time, you can expect to see implied values shrink as we move clower towards kick-off. Unlike other value betting services currently on the market, we will not show ‘stale’ prices or out of date implied value, although we will show how value has decayed over time, allowing you as a bettor to make early, informed decisions about your value bets. So watch this space, as Betlookr will soon be offering a new perspective on value betting. Make sure you are subscribed to our premium services, never miss a product update, and get ready to take advantage of value betting.
