Which leagues are the most profitable to bet on?

Here at Betlookr, we collect data on over 50 domestic soccer leagues, predicting results on over 20 popular markets.

This data gives us statistically significant insights into which leagues and which markets are actually profitable and which aren’t so profitable.

The results are rather interesting and inform savvy sports bettors about which leagues and which markets to focus their attention on.

Let’s start with the most profitable leagues, across all markets. The top 10 for profitability are:-

1. England Championship 
2. Italy Serie A
3. England Premier League
4. Spain La Liga
5. Netherlands Eredivisie
6. Greece Super League 
7. Spain Liga 2
8. Germany Bundesliga 
9. USA MLS
10. Norway Eliteserien

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Meanwhile, the bottom 10 in the profitability stakes are as follows:-

1. Korea K-League
2. Japan J-League 
3. Mexico Liga MX
4. Colombia Primera A
5. China Super League
6. Brazil Serie B
7. Croatia HNL
8. England League Two
9. Scotland Premiership
10. Chile Primera

These results are fascinating. The list of the most profitable leagues are clearly dominated by the major and most popular leagues of the world, both from a spectator and a betting perspective. Most sportsbooks give full coverage of markets for these leagues. No matter what you want to bet on, be it match winner, over/under, cards or corners, chances are you can bet on these leagues at most major bookmakers.

And that availability perhaps provides the main reason why the top leagues are the most profitable.

Lower margins = Larger profits 

The number one factor that bettors should use if they want to improve their sports betting performance is to be ever vigilant on how much margin they pay. Most bettors are aware that different sportsbooks have different margins, as they can easily see on any odds comparison tool. 

However, even within the same sportsbook, leagues that have lower betting volumes mean more risk for the bookie, and the bookmaker has to charge more margin to cover this elevated risk. 

That’s why the margins on the Korean league are higher than on the English Premier League, and those higher margins mean less profit to be shared between winning bettors. 

So the differences in popularity between leagues is a clear reason why lower leagues are less profitable than top leagues. It’s like playing European roulette instead of American roulette. That extra green number on American roulette means a higher house edge, which greatly reduces your odds of winning.

But is this the only reason for the difference in profitability between Korea’s K-League and the English Premier League? Or could there also be sporting reasons that make different leagues more predictable than others?

The reality of development leagues

Development leagues are the names given to less popular leagues which may be great at producing talent which are later sold on to bigger leagues. Some good examples are South American leagues such as Brazil and Argentina, which sell off their best up and coming talent to Europe every year. 

Clubs in these development leagues face a bigger churn than those in Big 5 European leagues. Whoever wins the Brazilian Serie A for example is immediately faced with the likes of Madrid and Chelsea knocking on their door with offers to whisk their stars across the Atlantic. 

This churn creates a highly volatile competition. Brazil has had 6 different champions in 10 years. In the same time period in England and Germany there have been just 2, Spain 3 and Italy 4. European leagues are dominated by the same hegemonic sides, year after year. This creates a level of consistency that is easy to bet on – the returns might be low but consistency is a quality in itself.

But be aware of the nuances

The data above is based on leagues as a whole. But there can be great differences within those leagues. A great example is Scotland. The Premiership top flight has been dominated by the Old Firm of Celtic and Rangers for over a century. In the last 40 seasons, the league has been won 39 times by these two teams. One of the safest bets in football is to bet that Rangers and Celtic will win each league game. Yes, the odds are abysmal but the reliability is such that a bettor can place a double and have extreme confidence that it will be a success. And yet, Scotland is the 9th least profitable league in our rankings. So nuance is important here.

Conclusions

Different leagues produce different levels of profitability. Being aware of this reality can increase your overall success in sports betting. Sometimes a bettor can move from losing to winning just by cutting out certain leagues. And while this may be down to the intrinsic unpredictability of these leagues, you should also be aware of the role of margins in choosing which market to bet on. Sometimes, the sportsbooks just don’t leave enough profit for bettors to take advantage of. 

In future articles we are going to explore these issues more, providing guidance on how the right decision making will increase your chances of beating the bookie.

Good luck.

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